The goal of this post is not convince anyone on the merits or lack thereof on crypto, but reflect briefly on the current state of this wild and crazy marketplace.
There is little that brings me more joy than seeing scams, scammers, and big cons go bust. I’m all for taking advantage of good deals, occasionally for some big gambles and wild swings, but since my first Planet Money podcast episode listen back in 2011, an immense crypto skeptic and more recent critic. The only actual crypto I’ve ever owned was Bitcoin “gifted” from Paypal back in the 2021 pop.
What is crypto? At the most basic level, it’s ownership of a digital “asset” of some form. That is generally reflected as a “currency” with the intent of it serving as a store of value, to enable transactions, or one of a hundred stated use cases which are generally highly suspect. Fidelity has a range of resources which give a good broad understanding of the what and why and how.
I do take great personal joy in occasionally trolling the crypto bros. Their meme game is strong. I’m of the general mindset that any investment should offer more than speculation and hopes and dreams as return (ownership in something, return of some form, etc.) From the get, I’ve found the underlying use case of crypto be little more than hype, pump and dump schemes, and occasionally an amazingly powerful tool to enable corruption and crime.
There are beautiful, amazing examples of folks getting rich and accomplishing their wildest dreams. There are companies built wholly around the premise of Crypto as the future foundation of business (Microstrategy.) Looking at Bitcoin, over the past 5 years it’s grown in value more than 300%, far more than the overall stock market, or even our high-growth tech sector. But that’s not the story at play here these past few months.
Crypto has been on heavily on the decline the past two months
Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its all-time highs of $126,000/coin in early October ($86.5k as of 12/17)
Ethereum has fallen 30% from its all-time highs of $4.8k/coin in August ($2.8k as of 12/17)
Crypto-hoarding companies have fallen from grace, with Microstrategy falling 65% from $455 in July ($160/share today). Today Microstrategy trades at less than the value of underlying Bitcoin assets (you can “buy” $1 of bitcoin for less than $1 by investing in MSTR.)
Beyond wild appreciation (or loss) the speculative asset class has immense volatility
Personally, losing money hurts way more than making money feels good. In the past week alone, there have been 4 days where the price of Bitcoin has dropped by more than 1.5%. Last month (November) there were four days where the price dropped more than 3.5% (see here for reference). Volatility is not inherently bad, but I would reflect explicitly it is an indication of a highly speculative asset.
It’s not just volatility, but it’s highly correlated with overall stock market returns
There’s a mythical reflection of Crypto as a digital-gold. Gold, historically, is not highly correlated (and often inversely) as a safe store of wealth in times of market uncertainty. What we see in reality, is the stock market goes up, Crypto goes up. The stock market goes down, Crypto goes down. Historically this volatility has had a high beta, so much magnified returns, and much magnified losses. Great for speculation or playing on volatility, but “invest” knowing it generally mirrors broader financial markets. Notably, this has broken down in late 2025, with a notable drop in Crypto but not in broader market.
My hot take is this.
Gamble however you want. Gamble big. Gamble small. Gamble knowing you’re gambling. Just don’t gamble in a way that will hurt you or your family if you’re wrong. Go to Vegas, throw a hundred on black, and if you win, celebrate. If you end up losing, and lots of folks do in Vegas, don’t lose in a way that will set you back meaningfully in your financial or personal goals. My non-financial advise on Crypto is take the freebies, but leave it there.
Inspiring post-ending gif
